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Op-Ed Contributor

Argentina’s Turnaround Tango

By IAN MOUNT

Published: September 1, 2011

Buenos Aires



Javier Jaén
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Times Topic:
ARGENTINA may seem like one of the last countries on earth to offer lessons for dealing with economic malaise. Once the eighth-largest economy in the world, it steadily slid through the 20th century, thanks to decades of repressive dictatorships and inconsistent market experiments. This ended ignominiously in 2001, when it defaulted on $100 billion in sovereign debt, plunging over half its 35 million people into poverty.
That, at least, is the Argentina people know. Since then, it has performed an economic U-turn — an achievement largely unnoticed outside Latin America, but one that President Obama and Congress should look to for inspiration.
Argentina is not without problems, but its recent speaks for itself: the economy has grown by over 6 percent a year for seven of the last eight years, unemployment has been cut to under 8 percent today from over 20 percent in 2002, and the poverty level has fallen by almost half over the last decade. The streets of Buenos Aires are choked with cars as Argentines are on track to buy some 800,000 new vehicles this year; the wine mecca of Mendoza is full of high-end tasting rooms, hotels and restaurants offering regional haute cuisine; and plasma TVs and BlackBerrys have become household staples among the urban middle class.
Argentina has regained its prosperity partly out of dumb luck: a commodity price boom has vastly benefitted this soy, corn and wheat producer. But it has also prospered thanks to smart economic measures. The government intervened to keep the value of its currency low, which boosts local industry by making Argentina’s exports cheaper abroad while keeping foreign imports expensive.
It then taxed those imports and exports, using the money to pay for a New Deal-like public works binge, increasing government spending to 25 percent of G.D.P. today from 14 percent in 2003. As a result, the country has 400,000 new low-income housing units, as well as a long-delayed, 235-mile highway between the northern cities of Rosario and Córdoba.
It has also strengthened its social safety net: the Universal Child Allowance, started in 2009 with support from both the ruling party and the opposition, gives 1.9 million low-income families a monthly stipend of about $42 per child, which helps increase consumption. Because the amount depends in part on how often the child attends school, it is also likely to improve the country’s long-term educational performance.
The results have also paid off politically: President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner recently won about 50 percent of the vote in an open primary against nine other presidential candidates.
Why have Argentines embraced bigger government? In part because the preceding era showed how poorly austerity measures — the sort now being pushed by conservatives in the United States — promote growth. In the late 1990s, Argentina cut government spending drastically on the order of its lenders at the International Monetary Fund. Predictably, between 1998 and 2002, Argentina’s economy shrank by almost 20 percent. It was only after Argentina turned its back on these austerity demands, and defaulted on its debt, that it began to recover.
Of course, Argentina is far from perfect: the import and export taxes have scared away some foreign investment, while high spending has pushed inflation well over 20 percent. There are also problems with the way Argentina is run: corruption, government opacity, authoritarian tendencies, confiscatory taxes and a temptation to tweak unpleasant inflation statistics. And it would be laughable to suggest that the United States follow its lead and default on its debt.
But Argentina still offers valuable lessons. For one thing, extreme cost-cutting during a stagnant economic period will only inhibit growth. And government spending to promote local industry, pro-job infrastructure programs and unemployment benefits does not turn a country into a kind of Soviet parody. It puts money in the pockets of average citizens, who then spend it and spur the economy. Spending cuts need to be made when times improve — an imperative Argentina is struggling with now — but not before.
Argentina is hardly a perfect parallel for the United States. But the stark difference between its austere policies and low growth of the late 1990s and the pro-government, high-growth 2000s offers a test case for how to get an economy moving again. Washington would do well to pay attention.
Ian Mount is the author of the forthcoming book “The Vineyard at the End of the World: Maverick Winemakers and the Rebirth of Malbec.”


A version of this op-ed appeared in print on September 2, 2011, on page A23 of the New York edition with the headline: Argentina’s Turnaround Tango.

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¡¡¡...TENGO TIEMPO...PARA SABER...SI LO QUE SUEÑO CONCLUYE EN ALGO...!!!

Siempre es bueno saber quien escribe esto. Ian Mount es un norteamericano que vive en Buenos Aires desde 2005, y escribe notas de política, viajes y vinos, que aparecen The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, y en revistas de viajes y turismo.

Gracias por la nota, aunque no esté muy de acuerdo. No se si nuestro "modelo" le serviría a E.U.. 350 Millones de yankies son muchos como para vivir sólo de la soja. Saludos!

Imágenes Adjuntas

DSC9088-edit2.jpg (10,4 KB (Kilobytes), 0 visitas)

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When Charlie Sheen was being sentenced for using a prostitute, the judge asked him why a man like him would have to pay for sex. And Sheen reportedly replied: “I don’t pay them for sex. I pay them to leave.”

Hay un error en tu titulo..... no lo recomienda el NYT, no es una editorial, es simplemente la opinion de un periodista.... que contribuye ocasionalmente con articulos, ni siquiera es empleado permanente del diario.


Saludos,
Pepeloco.

Si , por supuesto, pero no publican en papel cualquier opinion que no este en linea con el diario.

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¡¡¡...TENGO TIEMPO...PARA SABER...SI LO QUE SUEÑO CONCLUYE EN ALGO...!!!

Se quien es Ian Mount, me interesa la vitivinicultura. Con respecto al espiritu de la nota no se refiere a que USA viva de la soja, se refiere al hecho de que en periodos de recesion lo peor es ajustar el gasto (como estan forzando los replubicanos a que haga Obama) y da como ejemplo lo que paso en Arg. en los 90 hasta el 2001 y caso contrario como salio adelante fomentando el mercado interno a partir del 2003 con sus "defectos" propios de la politica argentina.

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¡¡¡...TENGO TIEMPO...PARA SABER...SI LO QUE SUEÑO CONCLUYE EN ALGO...!!!

Que pelotudez atomica.

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jaja...quien lo dice...

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¡¡¡...TENGO TIEMPO...PARA SABER...SI LO QUE SUEÑO CONCLUYE EN ALGO...!!!

Perdón?

repressive dictatorships: -> CIA
inconsistent market experiments -> CHICAGO BOYS

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"...Es así como en el organismo (social) cada órgano (ser humano)
no reclama sino una cantidad de alimentos proporcional a su propia dignidad."
Émile Durkheim

la tienen tan adentro...

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EL SACRIFICIO DEL GATERO

Repito: Una pelotudez.
Si tenes un milimetro de analisis te das cuenta.

En el resume del forro que escribe dice:
OTHER SKILLS AND AWARDS

· Experienced with Microsoft Office, Sound Forge, Photoshop, Illustrator and Quark.
· Fluent in verbal and written Spanish.
· Writer’s residency at Ucross Foundation (September 2001).

En Linkedin ya tiene como 28 contactos y en facebook 14 amigos y 30 sin confirmar.

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No, no es asi.... de hecho publican opiniones que no estan en linea con el diario.

Es como si me dijeras que lo que opinan Mempo Giardinelli en La Nacion, o Artemio Lopez en Perfil esta en linea con esos diarios, y no es asi.


Saludos,
Pepeloco.

Bueno, pero esos si son diarios serios.

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"El sexo es una de las cosas mas hermosas y gratificantes que el dinero puede comprar".
Tom Clancy

Fox (ex-presidente de México), lo explicó muy bien. "No se como los argentinos son tan tolerantes con la inflación".
El modelo argentino solo sirve para Argentina.
negro overo.

Imaginen que USA haga lo que este personaje dice: Se tiene que desindustrializar y dedicarse a la soja.
Quien no sepa de las industrias que hay en USA les recomiendo que investiguen, empazando por Boeing, automotrices, J.Deere, alimenticias, miles de industrias.
Si las tasas de interes aqui fueran iguales a las de Argentina la gente tendria la plata en los bancos y dejaria de laburar y obviamente no existirian los creditos que mueven a este pais.
USA es el primer exportador mundial de carne vacuna (eso no significa que los forros yankys sepan comer bien)
este personaje de caricatura no sabe lo que dice, le pagaron para decirlo

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Se me adelantó con el comentario colega.....
Viniendo de un tipo que escribe "looser" en vez de "loser" viviendo en los EEUU como dice. Así le debe ir....